The start of the 2011 CFB season is just a week away! Are you ready for some football?!? Stanford passer Andrew Luck is the front runner for the top pick and unless he falls completely flat on his face or a crazy ass fan from UCLA or USC kneecaps him after a game or something he should stay that way. Circle October 29 draftniks, that’s when the two top quarterbacks in college square off, Luck and USC’s Matt Barkley. If Barkley wins and plays better than Luck we could have an interesting race at the top of the 2012 draft. Let’s jump into some picks...
#1- Buffalo: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford*
This should be pretty simple for Nix and Gailey, they can’t mess it up, right? Maybe they go with Quinton Coples to pair with Marcel Dareus for a formidable d-line. But they couldn’t possibly pass on Luck, could they? If Fitzpatrick puts up 30 TD and looks franchise-ish, maybe, but if not Luck is the guy.
#2- San Francisco: Matt Barkley, QB, USC*
It’ll be time to start over unless Harbaugh really can work magic with Alex Smith. That’s doubtful. Which means they will likely be picking top 5 and in good position to nab a QB. They can’t go wrong with either Luck or Barkley and should just be happy to move on from Smith.
#3- Carolina: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State*
With Cam Newton in the fold, the Panthers look to give him a new target with Steve Smith nearing the end. Newton is in for some major lumps this year and the Panthers will be just as bad as last year. Adding Blackmon gives the Panthers a pair to grow with.
#4- Cleveland: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Cleveland should be pleased to see the draft’s top defender still available. They drafted d-line with their first two picks last year and should target the front seven once again. Browns DE have combined for a total of 18 career sacks, 11 from Marcus Bernard.
#5- Denver: Jonathon Martin, OT, Stanford*
Says a lot about how far the Stanford program has risen in recent years as Luck and Martin could both be top 5 picks. Martin runs 6-6 305lbs with the frame to add 10-12lbs. Looks like a prototype LT and should establish himself quickly along the Broncos’ front line.
#6- Seattle: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama*
Kirkpatrick is right on par with Patrick Peterson and Joe Haden as elite corners who go top 10. Kirkpatrick is still developing his ball skills but has all of the athletic talent you could want in a cover guy. The 4.3 speed, the 6-3 height, long arms, great hops, Fitzpatrick is the top defensive back available.
#7- Tennessee: Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State*
The Titans are in for a down year (http://mondaymorningcanuck.blogspot.com/2011/08/trade-cj-now.html) and need to put some focus on their lines. Derrick Morgan could be a stud at DE, but after that they’re just average up front and Morgan is coming off an ACL tear.
#8- Oakland: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma*
Jason Campbell is not the answer and neither is Terrelle Pryor. The Raiders are poised for a big step back from last year but a big step forward in 2012... with Jones at the helm. Has a good blend of size, running ability and arm strength.
#9- Cincinnati: Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina*
Bengals go with BPA and here that should be Jeffrey, a huge athlete who should test much better than one would expect from someone 6-4 230lbs. Jeffrey caught 88 passes for 1,517 yards last year despite working with Stephen Garcia. Imagine if he had a consistent QB? Yikes.
#10- Washington: Courtney Upshaw, ILB, Alabama
Another Bama defender with serious pro potential. Running 6-2 and around 260lbs, Upshaw is a force and could get a year as a backup behind London Fletcher and Rocky McIntosh before taking over for Fletcher in 2013.
#11- Detroit: Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame*
The 2012 crop of ILB features 5 guys with first round potential and they could go off the board in any order. Te'o may not necessarily be the best of the bunch but he seems the best fit for the Lions. Of the five, he has the best combination of size, speed, athleticism and smarts.
#12- Miami: Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
Weeden has one of the best arms in college right now as a former pitcher in the Yankees and Dodgers systems. He’s brought his fast ball from the diamond to the gridiron, putting up sick numbers as a junior (34 TD and 4,277 yards), his first year as a starter. Still very raw and likely will require some time.
#13- Jacksonville: Jeff Fuller, WR, Texas A&M
Doesn’t jump out as an athlete the way Blackmon and Jeffrey do but all Fuller does is move the chains. Is arguably the most dependable receiver in college and a great route runner. He makes Ryan Tannehill look real good... not the other way around.
#14- Kansas City: Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State*
Very tough and physical, an intense player, Burfict has star potential but needs work on getting off blocks. He gets into the backfield and has a nose for the ball. Will give the Chiefs another playmaker in the middle of the field.
#15- Minnesota: Andrew Datko, OT, Florida State
Needing to replace Big Gulp McKinnie, the Vikes grab another monster blocker to man the blind side of Christian Ponder (really, you think McNabb is still the Vikings starter this time next year?). Gatko gave up 1 sack in almost 700 snaps last year, though he missed 3 games with a shoulder injury.
#16- Tampa Bay: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
The Bucs will likely be dealing with an Aqib Talib suspension for at least 4 games, maybe more, and are a little thin at CB. Is developing a killer instinct going after the ball, boasts elite physical skills and packs a return element. Could go higher with another big season.
#17- St. Louis: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama*
Rams grab the successor to Steven Jackson, 28, as that person is definitely not on the roster right now. Richardson runs hard and runs fast and has enough size to handle a high workload. Got 22 carries against Penn State with Mark Ingram out and picked up 144 yards and a TD.
#18- Dallas: Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska
Crick has the versatility to play inside and out, showing excellent quickness at 6-4 285lbs and good instincts as a pass rusher. He’d be an upgrade over vets Marcus Spears and Igor Olshansky (0 combined sacks in 2010). Will have a long career as a base end.
#19- Indianapolis: Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina
The last time they took a LB in round 1 was 2000 (Rob Morris). It wouldn’t be a bad idea for them to take one here. Brown boasts low 4.5 speed and a nose for the ball, racking up tackles and picking off passes. He nabbed 3 INT in 2010 and is actually the starter this year. Needs to get stronger.
#20- Chicago: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
Built thick, Kuechly is a tackling machine (183 in 2010). He has average speed and quickness but makes plays on instinct and relentlessness. Could make more plays behind the line but generally makes them very close to it. The Bears get the future at LB.
#21- Arizona: Matt Kalil, OT, USC*
Not sure he’s special but Cards might get a steal here if he becomes a solid starter for the next decade. Is a redshirt junior with just 14 starts. Cards get to move Levi Brown to right tackle and potentially upgrade 2 spots.
#22- Cleveland [from Atl]: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers*
Cleveland will have had 3 seasons to evaluate Mohammed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie and if neither produces it might be time for the Browns to move on. Fellow junior Mark Harrison and Sanu form a potent duo for the Scarlet Knights that is still developing. Sanu is closer to elite than given credit for.
#23- New England: Billy Winn, DE, Boise State
New England could stand to add more young talent along their defensive line and Winn looks like a good fit for the Pats as a versatile guy who can play nearly any position along the line in any scheme. Has very good size at 6-3 300lbs and collected 9.5 TFL and 4 sacks in 2010. Will improve those numbers.
#24- Houston: Alameda Ta’amu, NT, Washington
A big space eater for the center of the Texans defence. Wade Phillips will find out that what he has is not enough and getting Ta’amu here will be a minor miracle. In time they may find themselves trading up to get him or waiting until later for a lesser talent.
#25- San Diego: Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama*
Surprisingly, the talent at ILB for the Bolts has rapidly declined and losing Kevin Burnett was a huge blow. They’re counting on some young guys to make good on potential but if not they will be in the market next year for an upgrade. Hightower could go much, much higher but speed is a concern.
#26- NY Giants: Orson Charles, TE, Georgia*
Arguably the best TE in college right now, Charles would probably benefit greatly by staying in school but getting taken by an organization like the Giants certainly won’t hurt his chances of success. Charles is bursting with potential and should improve on his 26 catches and 2 TD from last year. Size an issue.
#27- Baltimore: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa*
Is already a solid foundation with which to build from, Reiff is quickly getting better and if he makes good on his vow to stay for two more years, will only go much higher than this. Baltimore would be getting a steal with a still fairly raw player with 24 starts under his belt.
#28- Philadelphia: Matt Reynolds, OT, BYU
Though the Eagles went o-line this past April in the first round, they may be forced to go that way again as things still look shaky there for the “Dream Team”. Would fit in nicely as Jason Peters’ bookend as he’s not really the athlete needed to play LT. Quality person and player.
#29- Green Bay: Johnathan Franklin, RB, UCLA*
A darkhorse for the first round. Franklin is not the biggest guy but goes 5-10 200lbs and runs hard. Boasts very good speed and burst. A home run hitter who’s shooting for school season rushing record (1,571) and could get there. Ugly UCLA offense (104th in points, 116th in passing) hides his talent.
#30- Pittsburgh: Kelechi Osemele, G/T, Iowa State
Possibly a bit high but could have value to a team like the Steelers. Huge at 6-5 350lbs and not the greatest mover but he opens highways. Though he plays LT for Iowa State he doesn’t project there in the pros and fits best at guard where he can match up with the big tackles in the AFC North.
#31- NY Jets: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Could be the steal of the draft as Floyd has maybe the most talent of all the receivers available but has had repeated off field problems. Lacks elite straight line speed but makes circus catches, has a huge, huge frame and abuses most defensive backs. Learns a lot from Burress over a year or two.
#32- New England [from NO]: Mike Brewster, C, Ohio State
Belichick could do a lot worse than stand pat and take Winn and Brewster despite his rep as a pick trader. 2011 will be his fourth year as the anchor of the Buckeyes o-line and could likely step right into the Pats lineup at guard before eventually taking over for Dan Koppen.
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